Subseasonal to Decadal Forecasting in the Earth System Prediction Capability
Tropical and subtropical regions of North and South America feature summertime monsoon circulations, associated with seasonal changes in regional precipitation. These monsoons are of vital importance for regional water resources, agriculture and ecosystems. Relatively less studied than other monsoons, the American monsoons’ variability at subseasonal to interannual and interdecadal variability time scales remains elusive. Furthermore, as global climate warms, an understanding of variability and extremes is an even more pressing challenge.
NOAA’s Strategy to Improve Operational Weather Prediction Outlooks at Subseasonal Time Range by Dr. Tim Schneider
The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) to Advance National Weather Service Predictions for Weeks Three to Four by Dr. Anarita Mariotti
Coupled Data Assimilation in Navy Earth System Prediction Capability by Dr. Charlie Barron
Development of a Unified Global Coupled System (UGCS) at NCEP for sub seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction by Dr. Xingren Wu
Addressing Cloud-Radiation Errors from Four Hour to Four Week Model Prediction by Dr. Stan Benjamin
The National Earth System Prediction Capability is a partnership of five Federal agencies collaborating to address research and operational issues from weather to decadal time scales. 2015 WMO and the 2016 NRC reports on S2S call for broad US and international collaboration between academia, operational centers, private industry and the user community to advance earth system predictive capability beyond two weeks and to build and sustain a coordinated US S2S research capability. The National ESPC agencies will present their agenda to address these reports and move the US toward a robust S2S research and predictive capability. Expected presentations: - National ESPC overview and goals for S2S - National ESPC research member agencies (principals or program managers) present their agency agenda for building an S2S research community and their primary research focus areas. - National ESPC operational member agencies present their agenda for addressing S2S operations, support for research access to S2S prediction systems, and plans for user involvement in product development.
NOAA MAPP Research and Transition Initatives by Dr. Heather Archambaut
U.S. Navy Research Contributions to the National Earth System Capability Effort by Dr. Daniel Eleuterio
U.S. Naval Research Laboratory Verification and Validation by Dr. Neil Barton
NOAA ESRL Sub-Seasonal skill with Advnced Coupled Models by Dr. Stan Benjamin
Sources of Variablity in model skill during the 7 January 2013 Stratospheric Warming Event by Dr. Jonathan Blufer
NOAA OAR Contributions to Sub-Seaonal Forecasting that will Benefit National Capabilities by Dr. John Cortinas
How the Earth System Prediction Suite Contributes to Coordinated US S2S Research and Prediction Capability by Dr. Cecelia DeLuca
Next Generation NWP using a Spectral Element Dynamical Core by Dr. Jim Doyle
Five Federal Agencies (DOD – Navy & Air Force, DOE, NASA, NSF, and NOAA – NWS & OAR) signed a charter April 2016 creating the National Earth System Prediction Capability. This effort envisions an operational National capability for a coupled earth (air, ocean, wave, ice, land, space) prediction system (or system of systems) to support National needs from days to decades, with highest priority the two week to inter-annual time frame. This session will introduce the sponsoring agencies, their scientific goals, and supporting efforts. Relevant papers to be considered for the session include sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction systems (coupling, coupled data assimilation, multimodel ensembles, verification and validation, etc.), especially systems coordinated between participating agency partners. Additional topics include predictability related to slow mode earth system processes (ENSO, MJO, QBO, PDO, etc.) and societal needs for longer-range predictions.
Ocean Ensemble Forecasting in the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability by Dr. Clark Rowley
Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting at NASA in support of the National Earth System Prediction Capability by Dr. David Consadine
The DoD's High Performance Computing Modernization Program by Dr. William Burnett
Monitoring the Performance of the CFS v3 Development by Dr. Malaquias Peña
NOAA Climate Program Office Contributions to the National ESPC by Dr. Wayne Higgins
In the face of increased public and Federal awareness and concern over high-impact weather and ocean events globally and the changing climate environment, a number of calls have appeared in the literature seeking revolutionary collaboration among research sponsors and operational environmental prediction agencies and between the weather and climate communities to significantly advance our prediction capability to benefit mitigation, response and policy. Two partnership have been combined: National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC and Earth System Prediction Capability have been combined in the National Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC). National EPSC represents part of the U.S. response to this need for improved coordination of research towards more skillful and extended range operational environmental prediction.
U. S. Navy Participation in National ESPC by RDML Tim Gallaudet
National Science Foundation and the National ESPC by Dr. Pat Harr
Office of Naval Research and the National ESPC by Dr. Daniel Eleuterio
NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and the National ESPC by Mr. Craig McClean
National Weather Service contributions to the National ESPC
National ESPC Town Hall Brief at AGU Fall Meeting 2012 by Dr. Jessie Carman
Nationlal ESPC Overview Brief at AMS Annual Meeting 2013 by Dr. Jessie Carman
Nationlal ESPC Overview Brief at AMS Annual Meeting 2015 by Dr Jessie Carman