The National Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) is a collaboration between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force, Dept. of Energy (DOE), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF).
The Nation's security and economic well-being relies upon accurate global analysis and prediction capabilities for the physical environment over timescales of a few days to a few decades. This need for better-informed decisions is amplified by recent trends in the climate mean and variability, which reduce the reliability of predictions using average conditions and the recent extreme events affecting commerce, defense, infrastructure and water, energy and other resources. The National ESPC will improve environmental predictions and help decision makers address critical policy and planning issues by extending the National predictive capability from hours and days to seasonal, annual and decadal time periods through improved, coupled global environmental prediction.
The National ESPC vision is to establish a global physical earth system analysis and prediction system to provide seamless predictions covering hours to decadal timescales including the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere and space. This vision requires us to:
- Advance computational and environmental numerical prediction science and technology
- Enhance our understanding of complex interactions of the earth environment
- Extend predictive capability to decades
- Identify and quantify uncertainty and risk